马斯克 Clubhouse 直播全程回顾(附英文全文)_AND:METAALLBI币

当下最热门的App是哪个?

估计不少会说Clubhouse,这个App目前估值达到10亿美元,在不到一年的时间里就成为独角兽。

据悉,Clubhouse由PaulDavison和前谷歌员工RohanSeth共同开发,在去年4月上线,目前采用邀请制注册,已拥有超过200万用户。

2月1日,埃隆·马斯克首次登录了Clubhouse,并参加了一场a16z聊天室问答活动。与他一起聊天的嘉宾,还包括知名风投公司A16Z的联合创始人MarcAndreessen、知名天使投资人SriramKrishnan等。

在2月1日的分享中,马斯克分享了有关比特币及区块链、GameStop、Robinhood等热门话题。

比特币与狗狗币

关于比特币,马斯克提到2013年,一个朋友用比特币给他送了一块蛋糕。

他表示:"我应该在8年前就买它,在这一点上,比特币是个好东西。我是一个支持者。我加入的时间比较晚,但我支持它。"

马斯克另外提到,很明显比特币正在被传统金融界接受。

"我对其加密他货币没有什么意见。"但他表示狗狗币最开始是作为MEME来取笑加密货币的,但"命运就是喜欢讽刺"。

而在马斯克分享的观点中,他提到自己非常喜欢混乱。"最有趣的结果是最有可能的。"他说最讽刺的结果是狗狗币成为未来的通用货币。

不过马斯克另外提到他之前开了一个关于比特币的玩笑,很快他的Twitter账户被封了。

马斯克把他带回来:“人们要求答案,他们想知道真相。”

Gamestop与Robinhood

戏剧性转折,随着RobinhoodCEO——VladTenev的到来出现。

马斯克直接问Vlad:来告诉我们到底发生了什么,是不是有什么内幕?

马斯克所指的事情,是上周“Gamestop事件”之后,Robinhood宣布对包括游戏驿站GameStop和电影院线AMC等多支股票限制交易,仅允许用户卖出股票,并调高了对部分个股的保证金的要求。

此举令Robinhood遭到集体诉讼。用户要求Robinhood赔偿因交易中断所带来的损失。Robinhood在周五一度放松限制。

Vlad对此的回复道:上周四凌晨3:30,我们的运营团队从NSCC(国家证券结算公司)那里收到了一份文件。这就是Robinhood的用武之地。我们必须根据一些因素向NSCC注资,包括某些证券的交易活动的波动性。所以,他们给了我们一份存款文件,要求大约30亿美元,你知道,这比通常的数额高出了一个数量级。”

马斯克对Vlad的回复似乎更加感兴趣,很专业的追问了一系列问题,包括“这30亿美元是怎么算出来的?”、“凌晨3:30收到邮件,很可疑啊”、“有人要挟你吗?”……

对这样穷追不舍的盘问,Vlad最后只能草草回复道:有点阴谋论了。

附马斯克Clubhouse分享听写全文:

MuskinitiallytalkedaboutgoingtoMarsandsaiditwaslikelytobe“hard”fortheearlypioneers,butthattheendeavorultimatelywouldbeamatterofkeepingthe“candleofcivilizationaliveinthedark”.

Askedifhebelievedinaliens,hesaidtherewasn’tasinglepieceofconclusiveevidencefortheexistenceofaliens,althoughit’s“quitepossible”thereissuchathingasAlientechnology,atleastata“7/11”level,andajokedthattheevidencesofarsuggeststheymightbeatthe“500Megapixelcamera”or“atleastiPhone6level”.

HesaidhiskidswerenotquiteintotheideaofgoingtoMars.

Askedaboutmemesonlinehequipped:“Hewhocontrolsthememescontrolstheuniverse”andit’saboutwhat“influencesthezeitgeist”.Memesareacomplexformofcommunication,hesaid:unlikepictures,memesare“10,000wordsnot1,000words”.Theyareaspirationalandfunny.“Ilovememes,theycanbeveryinsightful,”headded.

DoeshetrytosoundcrazyonTwitter?“IstartedcrazyonTwitter,”hejoked.

Hesaidhedoesn’tfollowmemeshimself.Instead,hehas“memedealers,”friendswhopickoutandsendhimmemestheythinkhewouldlike.

HetalkedabouthiscompanyNeuralinkandalsoaddedthatTeslahadoneofthestrongestAIteamsintheworld.

WithAI,it’sabout“howdowestayrelevant”andatleast“stay‘alongfortheride’inthegoodscenario”andcoupleourmindswithAItoharnessitspower.

“Peoplearealreadyacyborg,”hesaid,referringtoatertiarylayerintheformofsmartphones.Thebit-rateofustypingintoaphoneis100bits.Soit’sliketryingtotalktoatree,foroursmartphones.Sowithadirectneuralinterface,weincreaseitbyahugemagnitude,andalsospendlongertimewithahighermagnitudeofprocessingbecauseofthis.

Youcandecideifyouwanttobearobotoraperson.Butwhenyouwakeinthemorningyouwouldn’thavetobethesame‘mind’asyouwereyesterday.It’sanalogoustoavideogame,notunlikethe“AlteredCarbon”Netflixseries.

ThereareprimitiveversionsofthisintheNeuralinkidea,withtinywiresgoingintoyourbrain.

HeclaimedNeuralinkwillbereleasingnewvideosinamonthorso,suchasofamonkeyplayingvideoswiththeirmind.Hedidn’tappeartocommentontheethicsbehindthis(oneofthemanytimesMuskwasnotchallengedinwhathesaid).Thevalueoftheearlyimplantwillbeenormousandoutweightherisks,ishistake.

Themoderatorsaskedhimabouteducating5-year-olds:whatshouldtheylearnthesedays?

Musktalkedabouthowvideogamesengagechildren,butexplaining“thewhy”wasimportant.

“Weareprogrammedtoforgetthelow‘probabilityofthings’iftheyaren’trelevant,”hesaid.Forexample,takingapartanengineandputtingittogether.Weneedtools,soweunderstandtherelevance.It’sbetterthantakinga“courseonwrenches”.

Hewasasked“whyaretherenotmoreElonMusks”?Hishard-knocksresponse:“Ifyouneedencouragingwords,don’tdoastartup.”

Healsogavehistwobitcoinsoncrypto.

Afriendsenthimasliceofcakeusingbitcoinin2013.“Ishouldhaveboughtit8yearsago.”hesaid.“AtthispointBitcoinisagoodthing.Iamasupporter.Iamlatetotheparty,butIamasupporter.”

HesaiditwasclearBitcoinwasgettingbroaderacceptancebythefinancialworld.“Idon’thaveastrongopiniononothercurrencies.”Dogecoin,hesaid,wasmadeasjoketomakefunofcryptocurrencies,but“fatelovesirony.”

Anditalsoseemstolovechaos,inMusk’svioew.“Themostentertainingoutcomeisthemostlikely,”hesaid.ThemostironicoutcomewouldbeDogecoinbecomingthecurrencyofthefuture.

Butmaybenotifsomesocialplatformshaveanythingtodowithit.HesaidhemadeajokeaboutBitcoinandhisTwitteraccountgotlocked.

AttentionthenturnedtohiselectriccarcompanyTesla.Thetargetistomake20millioncarsandtrucksperyear.Thisisawild—andagain,veryunchallenged—statement:recallthatin2020itmadelessthan500,000cars,andevenlesstrucks.Thatalongroadtotravel,inotherwords.

Healsohadsomethoughtsonself-driving.Autonomousvehiclescouldreachthepointwhereyouwouldrelyonthemforasignificantamountoftimeintheaweek.Autonomouscarswouldtakeoverforroughlyathirdofthehoursinaweeks,so60hoursinsteadof12,eventually,inhisprojection.(Again,veryblueskystatementshere,astherearenofullyautonomouscarsinfreeuseonroadsatthispoint.)

Healsohadsomethoughtsonworkinthepandemicandpost-pandemicworld.WorkingremotelyonZoomhasbeentrickyforhim,hesaid.“Fearisnotthemind-killer,contextswitchingthemind-killer,”hesaid,ofhavingtoswitchbetweendisparatesubjectsoncalls.

WouldhestartanothercompanytoaddressCovid-19insomeway?HejokedthatheprettymuchhashishandsfullwithTesla,SpaceX,TheBoringCompanyandotherstodate.

Hetalkedaboutthehugeadvancesinvaccinetechnology,suchastheMRNAtechwhichmadetheCovid-19vaccinepossible.Heseemedverybullishaboutthevaccine.

Whilethenewstodayisaboutthethedearthofsupplyinvaccines,itseemslikehethinksthespaceforCovid-19medicines,andspecificallyinoculationsagainstit,isacrowdedmarketlongerterm.“Thereisgoingtobeanavalancheofvaccine,”cominghesaid.“Iguaranteeyou‘it’willbethrownawaythisyear.”

Therecouldbeanopportunityforproducingtheseinhiscurrententerprises,hehinted.“TheTeslamachinecanmakeabazilliondosessuperfast,”heclaimed.(Again,nochallengeorfollowuponthatone,either.)

Allinall,hemadehispoisonclearonvaccines:“Iamnotananti-vaxxer,Iamapro-vaxxer.”

Thenaturntohisfirstyearsintechnology.InSiliconValleyintheearlydays,hesaid,hehadtoaskhimself:“DoIwatchtheinternetbeingbuiltinfrontofmeordoIgetinvolved?”

Still,herecalledbeing“tooshy”tospeaktoanyoneinthelobbyofNetscape.

Thenhetriedtocode.Hewrotethefirstmapsanddirectionsontheinternet.Byhand.TheWebsiteonlyworkedduringthenightashewasusingtheserveronthecomputerduringthedaytocode.

MarcAndreessen,whowasalsoontheclubhousesession,thenquippedthathewouldgetajobthenexttimehehangsoutinthelobbyofoneofhiscompanies.

Muskgaveahat-tipto‘TheLastKing’andCobraKaiforhisstreamingenjoyment.TheExpanse’splotlinessometimesseemtoofantasticaltohim,hesaid.HewasrecommendedDevs,MythicQuestandRavensBanquetbymoderators.Tenetwas“prettygood”too,hesaid.Didheunderstandit?“Ifyouthinktoohardaboutit,it’snotgoingtomakecompletesense,butit’sagoodmovie.”

HisknowledgeofTheHitchhikersGuidetotheGalaxy,remainsimpressivelyintact.

Then,abigswitchingofthegears,as“VladTheStockImpaler”wasbroughtintotheClubhouseroomtotalkabouttheGameStopphenomenon.

“Vlad”—morespecificallyVladTenev,CEOofRobinhood—beganwithan,attimes,stumblingattempttoexplainwhathappenedlastweekbutwaseventuallyinterrogatedmorethoroughlybyMusk.

Muskatthispointturnedinterviewer,andwe’reheredoingabitmorecomprehensivetranscribingbecauseit’sworthkeepingTenev’swordsinfull.

“Allright,telluswhatreallyhappened.Giveustheinsidescoop,”Musksaid

“Thishasbeenaverysurrealweekendandweekforme,”saidVlad.

Vladsaid“oneofthereallygreatthingsisallthepeople“comingoutofthewoodwork”tooffersupportforthecompanytoofferadvice.HesaidthiswashisfirsttimeusingClubhouse.Hethenmadeajokeyremarkaboutbeinganadherentofthe“simulationhypothesis”.

Muskbroughthimback:“Thepeopledemandananswerandtheywanttoknowthetruth.”

Vladsaid:“Sothere’sanintroducingbroker-dealercalledRobinhoodFinancial,andthatbasicallyistheappthatyouknowandlove,itprocessestrades.You’reacustomerofRobinhoodFinancial.Thenthere’saclearingbroker-dealer,RobinhoodSecurities,thatclearsandsettlesthetrades.AndthenwehaveRobinhoodCrypto,whichisourCryptobusiness…Allofthesearedifferententitiesthataredifferentlyoperated.So,basicallyWednesdayoflastweek.Wejusthad,youknow,unprecedentedvolume,unprecedentedloadonthesystem.Alotofthese,youknow,so-calledmemestockswere,youknow,goingviralonsocialmedia,andpeoplewerepeoplearejoiningRobinhoodandtherewasalotofnetbuyactivityonthem.”

HesaidRobinhoodbecamenumberoneontheiOSAppStoreandprettycloseifnotnumberoneonGooglePlaystore.

“ThursdaymorningI’msleeping.At3:30amPacific,ouroperationsteamreceivesafilefromtheNSCC,whichistheNationalSecuritiesClearingCorporation.So,basicallyasabrokerasaclearingbroker.AndthisiswhereRobinHoodSecuritiescomesin.WehavetoputupmoneytotheNSCCbasedonsomefactorsincludingthingslikethevolatilityofthetradingactivityintocertainsecurities.Andthisisistheequitiesbusinesssoit’sbasedon,stocktradingandnotoptionstradingoranythingelse.

So,theygiveusafilewiththedepositandtherequestwasaround$3billion,whichis,youknow,aboutanorderofmagnitudemorethanwhatittypicallyis.”

Musk:Thisisnotanunprecedentedincreaseindemandforcapital.Whatformulathattheyusetocalculatethat”

Vlad:Justtogivecontext,Robinhoodupuntilthatpointhasraisedaround$2billionintotalventurecapital.Upuntilnow,soit’sabignumber,like$3billionisalargenumber,right.So,basically,thedetailsare,wedon’thavethefulldetails,it’salittlebitofanopaqueformula,butthere’sacomponentcalledtheVARofit,whichisvalueatrisk.Andthat’sbasedonkindofsomefairlyquantitativethingsalthoughit’snotfullytransparent.So,therearewaystoreverseengineerit,butit’snotkindofpubliclyshared.

Andthenthere’saspecialcomponent,whichisdiscretionary.Sothatkindofactsasamultiplier,andbasically

Musk:Discretionarymeaninglikeit’sjusttheiropinion”

Vlad:There’sdefinitelymore,morethanjusttheiropinion.

Musk:Everyonewantstoknow,didsomethingshadygodownhere?Itseemsweirdthatyougetasudden$3billiondemand,youknow,at3.30aminthemorning.Justsuddenlyoutofnowhere.

Vlad:Iwouldn’timputeshadinesstoitoranythinglikethatandactuallyyouknowtheNSCCwasreasonable.

Theyworkedwithustoactuallylowerit.So,itwasn’tunprecedentedactivity.Idon’thavethefullcontextabout,youknow,whatwasgoingonintheNSCCmakethesecalculations.

Musk:Isanyoneholdingyouhostagerightnow?

Vlad:Thanksforasking.Butanyways,sothiswasobviouslynerve-racking,andIactuallywasasleepatthispoint,youknow,theoperationsteamwasfieldingthisatthreeo’clock.Andthen,youknow,wegotback,weputourheadstogether.OurChiefOperatingOfficerbasicallysaid,look,let’scallupthehigher-upsattheNSCCandkindoffigureoutwhat’sgoingon.Maybethere’ssomewaywecanworkwiththem.Andbasically,therewasanothercall.Andtheyloweredittosomethinglike$1.4billionfrom$3billion….Butstillahighnumber.

Vladsaidtheteamthenproposedhowtomanagetheriskthroughtheday“markingthesevolatilesstocksthatweredrivingtheactivity,positioningclosingonly.Andthen,ataboutanhourbeforethemarketclosedmarketopened.So,at5.30,orfiveinthemorning,theycamebackandtheysaidokay,thedeposit700million,whichwethendepositedandpaidpromptly.Andthen,everythingwasfine.

So,thatthatessentiallyexplainswhywehadtomarkthesymbols‘positionclosingonly’,andalsowhy,youknow,weknewthiswasabadoutcomeforcustomers…Partofwhat’sbeenreallydifficultisRobinhoodstandsfor,youknow,democratizingaccesstostocksand,yes,wewant,wewanttogivepeopleaccesssowehadnochoiceinthiscase,wehadtoconformtoourregulatorycapitalrequirements.Andsotheteamdidwhattheycouldtomakesurewewereavailableforcustomers.

Musk:Whocontrolstheclearinghouse?

Vlad:It’saconsortium.It’snotquiteagovernmentagency.Youknow,I,Idon’treallyknowthedetailsallthat.But,youknow,andtobefair…therewaslegitimateturmoilinthemarkets.Theseareunprecedentedeventswiththesememestocks,therewasalotofactivity.So,thereprobablyissomeamountofextrariskinthesystemthatwarrants,higherrequirements,soit’snotentirelyunreasonable.

Butwedidoperationalprocessestomakesurethatcustomersthathadpositionscouldselltheiropenpositionsbecauseobviouslyrestrictingsomeone…Wegotalotofquestionsabout‘youhadtorestrictbuying,whydidn’tyoualsorestrictselling?’Andthefactofthematteris,peoplegetreallypissed-offifthey’reholdingstockandtheywanttosellitandtheycan’t.Sothat’scategoricallyworse.Lotsofotherbrokers,Ithink,we’reinthesamesituation.Robinhoodwhowasinthenews,butyoujustsortofheardthisindustry-wide,otherbrokers,werebasicallyrestrictedinthesameexactactivity.

Musk:Soitsoundslikethisorganizationcallsyouupandtheybasicallyhaveaguntoyourhead.Eitheryouputupthismoneyorelse.Basically,whatpeoplearewonderingisdidyousellyourclientsdowntheriver?Ordidyouhavenochoice?Andifyouhadnochoicethat’sunderstandable.Butthen,youknow,we’vegottofindoutwhyyouhavenochoice.Andwhoarethepeoplethataresayingyouhavenochoice?

Vlad:Ithinkthat’sfair.Wehavetocomplywiththeserequirements,financialinstitutionshaverequirements.Theformula,behindtheserequirements…itwouldobviouslybeidealiftherewasalittlebitmoretransparencysowecouldplanbetteraroundthat,buttobefair,wewereabletoopenandserveourcustomersand24hourslater,ourteamraisedoverabilliondollarsincapitalsothatwhenwedoopentomorrowmorningwe’llbeableto,kindof,relaxthestringentpositionlimitsthatweputonthesesecuritiesonFriday.

Musk:Willtherebeanylimits?

Vlad:WellIthinkthere’salwaysgoingtobesometheoreticallimit,wedon’thaveinfinitecapital,right?AndonFriday,therewerelimits.So,there’salwaysgoingtohavetobesomelimit,Ithinkthequestionis,willthelimitsbehighenoughtothepointwheretheywon’timpact99.9-pluspercentofcustomers.Soifsomeoneweretodeposit$100billionanddecidetotradeinonestockthatwouldn’tbepossible.

Musk:Ifyouhadnochoicethenyouhadnochoice.It’sa‘guntotheheadsituation’.That’sunderstandable.

Vlad:Yeah,theseareunprecedentedtimes,andtobefairtothoseguysthey’vebeenreasonable.So,IthinktheonethingthatismaybenotcleartopeopleisRobinhoodisaparticipantinthefinancialsystem.Sowehavetoworkwithallofthesecounter-parties,sowedogetalotofquestionsabout,youknow,‘whydoyouworkwithmarketmakers?’,whyyouworkwithclearinghouses.Verticallyintegrating…Imeanit’shardenoughtobuildanintroducing…clearingbroker-dealer…nottoomanypeoplehavedonethat.Butthefinancialsystemthatallowscustomerstotradesharesissortofacomplexwebofmultipleparties…Everyonesaysitcouldbebetter.Itcouldbeimproved.It’sjustthenecessityoftradingequitiesintheUS,thatyouhavetodoallthesethings.

Musk:TowhatdegreeareyoubeholdentoCitadel?

Vlad:TherewasarumorthatCitadelorothermarketmakerskindofpressuredusintodoingthisandthat’sjustfalse.Marketmakersexecuteourtrades,theyexecutetradesofeverybroker-dealer.Thiswasaclearinghousedecision,anditwasjustbasedonthecapitalrequirements.So,fromourperspective,youknow,Citadelandothermarketmakersweren’tinvolvedinthat.

Musk:Butwouldn’ttheyhaveastrongsayonwhogotputinchargeofthatorganization,sinceit’sanindustryconsortium,notagovernmentregulatoryagency?

Vlad:Idon’thaveanyreasontobelievethat.Ithinkthat’sjustlike,youknow,thenyou’regettingintokindoftheconspiracytheoriesalittlebit.So,Ijusthavenoreasontobelievethatthat’sthecase,youknow.

Musk:Okay.Well,Iguesswe’llseewhathappenswithdirections.Hopefully,thatwasinsightfuloratleastalittlebitentertaining.“Areyounotentertaining?”hesaid.

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