美联储四年多来首次加息 点阵图显示后面连着还有9次

在结束两天的会议后,北京时间今天凌晨,美联储宣布加息25个基点。

这是2018年以来美国首次加息。

从新闻稿看,联储认为价格压力是普遍的,不只是能源价格,还有劳动力等,目前的失业率已明显下降(2月份美国CPI通胀率为7.9%,40年来最高;失业率为3.8%,已接近疫前水平)。

联储准备从下次会议开始,减少国债和机构债MBS的持有量。

投票委员中,圣路易斯联储主席James Bullard投票加息50个基点。

据FT报道,在会后的记者会上,联储主席鲍威尔谈到加息是为了应对高通胀和紧张的劳动力市场 extremely tight labor market in high inflation.

点阵图(dot plot,投票委员对利率区间的预测)显示,联储官员比三个月前调高了利率预测,预计2022年剩下的时间还将加息6次,2023年加息至少3次。联邦基金利率届时将达到2.8%,高于影响经济增长的“中性位置”(多数官员预测的中性利率为2.4%)。

美国CPI(1965-2022)

报告:2020年区块链黑客攻击次数有所减少:根据VPN提供商Atlas VPN近日发布的报告,2020年与加密货币和区块链相关的黑客攻击一直在减少。报告指出,2019年是区块链黑客攻击次数创纪录的一年,2019年上半年成功的黑客攻击达到94次,而在2020年上半年有31次。与此同时,报告称,由于2020年还没有结束,预计在年底之前还会发生更多与区块链相关的违规行为。不过,根据历史数据,2020年似乎不会达到2019年的纪录高点,而区块链黑客攻击的次数将继续减少。(腾讯网)[2020/11/3 11:29:56]

美国劳动参与率(1948-2022)

联储新闻稿如下:

March 16, 2022

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.

人民日报海外版:加快数字人民币的国际化:人民日报海外版刊文“人民币国际化仍有较大空间”。文章表示,近几年数字货币发展迅速,在跨境结算上数字货币可能会对传统货币带来挑战,对人民币来说在货币市场上的竞争对手增加。加强人民币国际化、提高人民币在国际上的影响力显得尤为迫切。未来在稳步推进人民币国际化的过程中,值得注意的包括,加快数字人民币的国际化。数字货币提高了跨境交易的速度,要加快推广在跨境支付中人民币的使用,以此提高人民币的流通度和人民币在国际支付中的地位。[2020/8/25]

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, but in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee expects to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at a coming meeting.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Esther L. George; Patrick Harker; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage point to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.

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